In this paper, the researchers characterize the careers of minimum wage workers by merging data collected from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation covering 1992-2016 into data from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics Program.
A long-run analysis shows strong earnings growth for these workers in subsequent decades, becoming indistinguishable from peers earning modestly more initially. Most of this growth is due to the steep earnings trajectories of young workers. Older workers earning minimum wages show a modest dip in earnings at that moment compared to earlier and later periods. Increases in state minimum wages do not significantly alter the future careers of workers who are on the minimum wage when the increases occur.
